St. Andrews, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

844
FXUS62 KCAE 251758
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
158 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Moisture has increased over the region lowering fire weather
concerns slightly. However, due to continued drought conditions
South Carolina Forestry Commission`s State Foresters Burning
Ban remains in effect until further notice. Updated aviation
discussion for 18z update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. Scattered showers, low rain amounts this weekend.

- 2. Higher rain and thunderstorm chances mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Scattered showers, low rain amounts this weekend.

Weak southerly flow will lead to increasing atmosphere moisture
over the Southeast as a front approaches from the west.
Although PWAT values may rise to 1.5 inches, or about 175
percent of normal, the low levels will remain quite dry through
the afternoon with surface dewpoint depressions of 30 to 35
degrees. It will be difficult to get deep convection to develop
this afternoon with high LCLs and warm mid-levels. We would
expect to see only isolated showers until a shortwave moves over
the area this evening and the frontal boundary draws closer.
With surface dewpoints rising into the 60s tonight and colder
air aloft we begin to see thermodynamic profiles more supportive
of deep convection and possibly a few thunderstorms. Any
thunderstorms would be weak and the environment does not
support severe weather. Rainfall will be limited tonight with
PMM QPF amounts from the REFS generally less than 0.1" across
the FA, although a few deeper cells could allow for localized
higher amounts.

A backdoor front will cross through the FA from the north on
Sunday with isolated to scattered convection possibly forming
along the boundary. Any showers or storms will be forming in an
environment with dry air aloft so it`s possible that
entrainment could prevent sustained updrafts. So again we would
not expect very much in the way of rainfall for much of the
area.

Key Message 2: Higher rain and thunderstorm chances mid-week.

A more unsettled pattern develops next week as ridging gives way
allowing a series of shortwave troughs to encroach on the
Southeastern US mid-week. NAEFS PWAT values rise to the 90th
percentile of climatology for Tuesday and Wednesday. This
pattern of above normal atmospheric moisture and shortwave
activity over the region supports at least a chance of rain mid-
week. That said there remains a great deal of uncertainty for
rainfall amounts with the NBM IQR from 0.1 to around 1 inch
through the week. Thunderstorms will also be possible with the
majority of GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members showing more than
500 J/kg of MUCAPE Wednesday and Thursday. With a potential
frontal passage, moderate wind shear, and at least weak
instability there may be a threat of severe weather that needs
to be monitored. Some of the NCAR ML/AI severe probabilities are
also beginning to pick up on low potential for severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions continue into the afternoon. A cold front ushers
in showers later today. Uncertainty as to whether restrictions
develop tonight.

A cumulus field has developed across the area, with bases in the
7-9kft range at this time. Additionally a few showers have begun
to develop across the region, but are currently well away from
the terminals. A front to our west continues working its way
eastward, bringing additional shower activity to the area. Some
of these showers are likely to affect the terminals, but
confidence is on the low side for any visibility restrictions
with these showers. Given how dry the surface is, there could be
gusty winds associated with any showers or storms near the
terminals. After the shower activity subsides tonight, there is
potential for low ceilings and/or fog, but there is a lot of
spread between the various guidance, so confidence remains too
low to include at this time. Will continue to monitor with
future TAF issuances. Winds are generally from the southwest
around 8 kts with isolated gusts up to 15 kts. Winds are
expected to become light and variable to calm overnight,
becoming northerly after about 15z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some periodic vsby and cig
restrictions are possible over the next week with a more
unsettled pattern and chances for rain Sunday and Tuesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...29